Inflation expectations fade to pre-tariff levels

Americans’ outlook on inflation was little changed last month as households upgraded their views on the state of their finances and ability to get credit. The New York Federal Reserve monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that respondents in June saw inflation at 3% 12 months from now, the same level it was at in January, before President Trump’s sweeping tariff proposals. The reading marked a 0.2 percentage point decline from May. Inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively, according to the survey. Fewer households reported difficulties accessing credit, with a smaller share saying they will face challenges in the next year. Chances of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months dropped to the lowest since May of last year. Separately, the Philadelphia Fed said that in the first quarter the share of credit cards in some sort of delinquency retreated for the first time since the closing three months of 2021. It also said that the rates being paid on credit cards are the highest since 2012, at an average of 24.62% during the first quarter