Chief financial officers remain broadly optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook but are unconvinced that President Donald Trump’s decision to replace Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will enhance the central bank’s effectiveness, according to CNBC’s Q4 2025 CFO Council Survey. The majority of CFOs expect economic stability in 2026, with 73% describing their outlook as optimistic and most predicting no recession or bear market. However, 77% said it is “doubtful” that Mr. Trump’s Fed nominee – widely expected to be National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett – would make the institution more effective than under Mr. Powell’s leadership. CFOs anticipate only one or two rate cuts in the first half of next year and expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s 2% target into 2027. Despite a 16% rise in the S&P 500 this year and the extension of corporate tax cuts, 72% of CFOs rated Mr. Trump’s first year of his second term as either “fair” or “poor.” His trade and immigration policies were particular points of criticism, with many saying they are not conducive to business success. By contrast, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent received a stronger reception, with 62% of CFOs rating his performance as “good” or “excellent.”
